World’s Largest Hedge Fund – The Danger is Already Here

By Victor Reklaitis | Published June 6, 2018

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So much for a June swoon?

The S&P 500 today is trying to make it four up sessions in a row, with the month so far all about traders rekindling their love affair with tech. They’re also stringing along Macy’s.

But bears can take heart because the world’s biggest hedge fund sounds like it’s on their side.

“2019 is setting up to be a dangerous period for the economy, as the fiscal stimulus rolls off while the impact of the Fed’s tightening will be peaking,” say Bridgewater Associates strategists in a note to clients, according a couple of published reports.

“And since asset markets lead the economy, for investors, the danger is already here.”

Markets are still pricing in “Goldilocks” conditions, and that compounds the risks, warns the giant fund, which was founded by outspoken billionaire investor Ray Dalio.

Bridgewater is downbeat on the prospects of a range of investments.

“We are bearish on almost all financial assets,” say the strategists in their note, which hit last week but was just reported on by Business Insider and ZeroHedge.

Keep in mind that Dalio has admitted to being wrong roughly one-third of the time. And it’s worth remembering the evergreen advice from A Wealth of Common Sense’s Ben Carlson — who says don’t try to emulate the billionaire hedge-fund managers.

Key market gauges

Futures for the Dow YMM8, -0.04%  , S&P 500 ESM8, -0.01% and Nasdaq-100 NQM8, -0.05% are rising, after the Dow DJIA, +0.38% inched lower yesterday, the S&P SPX, -0.07% edged higher, and the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite COMP, -0.70% notched its second-straight record close.

Italy’s FTSE MIB I945, -0.18% is slumping, but other European indexes SXXP, -0.24% are gaining, after Asia largely advanced. The U.S. oil benchmarkCLN8, +0.02%  , gold GCM8, -0.05% and the dollar index DXY, -0.19% are dipping, as bitcoin BTCUSD, -0.20% holds around the $7,600 mark.

See the Market Snapshot column for the latest action.

At 6.7 million, the number of U.S. job openings now tops the number of unemployed Americans, which comes in at 6.3 million. That’s shown in the above chart, featured in today’s Daily Shot and based on Federal Reserve economic data.

It’s the first time this has happened since such record keeping began in 2000, says the Labor Department, according to a Wall Street Journal report.

We haven’t seen this since 1970, says a Bloomberg report, which cites data and calculations from other number crunchers.

The probability of Italy leaving the European Union in the next year is not zero, but it’s more likely that England will win the World Cup, say Barclays strategists, according to a Bloomberg report.

So what are the chances that England becomes the champ? Commerzbank says 6.2%, while UBS says 8.5%.

The buzz

Macy’s stock M, +0.27% is dipping in premarket action after jumping 8% yesterday. Shares are up 13% for the week so far, helped by an Evercore note that says investors should buy ’em, the “retailpocalypse” is over, and “old-world brands” are figuring out the digital era. The retailer’s year-to-date gain has stretched to 59%.

Tesla’s stock TSLA, +0.16% is rising premarket after CEO Elon Musk said the company will “quite likely” meet its goal of making 5,000 Model 3 cars in a single week by month’s end. At yesterday’s annual shareholder meeting, few investors asked tough questions.

Signet Jewelers SIG, +3.12% and Vera Bradley VRA, -0.43% look set for up days after their quarterly results, while Jack Daniel’s distributor Brown-Forman’s BF.B, -2.34% sales missed.

A release on the trade deficit showed the gap is down to a seven-month low, as President Trump puts this sleepy report back in the spotlight. Figures for productivity and labor costs also arrived before the open.

Check out: MarketWatch’s Economic Calendar

The accounts of 92 million customers of DNA testing and genealogy service MyHeritage have been compromised.

Republicans won’t be shut out of California’s top-of-the-ticket fall election to succeed Gov. Jerry Brown, as Democratic Lt. Gov. Gavin Newsom placed first and GOP candidate John Cox came second in yesterday’s primary.

So we’ve got a double-barreled quote of the day.

Newsom said: “We’re engaged in an epic battle, and it looks like voters will have a real choice this November — between a governor who is going to stand up against Donald Trump and a foot solider in his war on California.”

Cox said: “This is only the first step to turning around this state and taking back California for all Californians.”

In other primary news, “The Fonz” was among the 118,000 voters erroneously left off LA County’s rosters, and New Mexico’s Deb Haaland looks on track to become the first Native American congresswoman.

Source: MarketWatch