Wall St. and Main St. are bullish on Gold
The big catalyst for this week’s rise to five-year highs was dovish communication from the Federal Open Market Committee. Policymakers left interest rates unchanged after a two-day meeting but took steps toward setting up markets for rate cuts, removing wording saying they would be “patient” when adjusting monetary policy and saying they see “uncertainties” about the economic outlook and thus “will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion.”
This came after European Central Bank President Mario Draghi also hinted at rate cuts. Additionally, tensions between the U.S. and Iran were heightened after Iran shot down a U.S. military drone in the Middle East.
Eighteen market professionals took part in the Wall Street survey. A total of 12 voters, or 67%, called for gold to rise. There were three votes each, or 17%, for both lower and sideways/neutral.
Meanwhile, 936 respondents took part in an online Main Street poll, the most in nearly a year. A total of 616 voters, or 66%, called for gold to rise. Another 196, or 21%, predicted gold would fall. The remaining 124 voters, or 13%, saw a sideways market.
In the last survey, seven out of 10 Main Street and Wall Street voters were bullish. Just before 11 a.m. EDT, they were right. Comex August gold futures were trading up 3.9% for the week so far at $1,396.90 an ounce.
“Gold is definitely in breakout mode [higher],” said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst with at Price Futures Group. “The sleeping giant has awoken, spurred by the Fed’s and ECB’s more dovish rate outlook, along with a spattering of geopolitical risk. Things are heating up in Iran.”
Jim Wyckoff, senior technical analyst with Kitco, said bulls have the momentum.
“Many traders are going home for the weekend very nervous, what with the U.S. and Iran presently in an intense stare-down,” Wyckoff said. “That’s bullish for safe-haven gold and silver.”
Colin Cieszynski, chief market strategist at SIA Wealth Management, said that gold will continue to rally as there is now a global coordinated effort among central banks to loosen monetary policy to support economic growth.
Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, also said he is bullish on gold. He added that prices need to establish and hold support between $1,355 and $1,375 to signal that gold has truly broken out of its five-year range.
George Gero, managing director with RBC Wealth Management, said “enough global worry abounds keeping buyers interested.”
Meanwhile, Charlie Nedoss, senior market strategist with LaSalle Futures Group, looks for gold to retreat next week even though he is bullish for the longer term.
“We have a lower dollar and slowing world economies and perception of falling interest rates,” he said, listing a number of gold-supportive influences. “But we are on the heels of a big rally.
“I don’t think the highs are in. We’re setting up for a larger move….But we’ve gone pretty far this week. So I wouldn’t be surprised to see some profit-taking.”
Richard Baker, editor of the Eureka Miner’s Report, looks for gold to be sideways around $1,400 an ounce.
“I suspect, given the advances this week, that both gold and [Treasury] yields will consolidate around $1,400 and 2% next week, sensitive of course to any surprise coming from the G20 [Group of 20] meeting, Baker said. “It’s noteworthy that the gold-to-silver ratio peaked again, now above 91. This suggests that silver is historically very, very cheap relative to gold. It is likely at these levels that silver will stabilize around $15.30 level but watch for a breakout higher.”